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An Awful Choice.

“What a revolting decision to have to make” was one our Panellist’s reaction to today’s problem. That’s how I felt about it at the table. So, let’s see how you and the Panel coped. And I promise not to make the hackneyed quote that “pre-empts do work”!

 

First time round you have a pretty comfortable pass… but now? Is your partner balancing or have they a strong opening hand in their own right?

The common view was to take whatever money might be on offer:

Stephen Blackstock “Pass: Not venturesome, but the options are not attractive. We can hope to hold South to his seven trump tricks (a spade lead is automatic), and +500 loses little against a vulnerable game. And if I don't pass, then what? I can't sensibly choose a suit contract, so can only cue bid 4 (or try 4NT if 4 says "you choose, and I have a spade control"). The outcome may not be pretty: opposite the typical 1444 shape we will play 5, and a 4-3 fit at the five level on an auction that warns of bad breaks is not my idea of good business. 

Of course, I may miss a slam if partner is very strong, but are we going to bid a slam, let alone the right slam, if we have one? Partner will be wary because my range is wide and shape unclear. Very often the "pass and take what we can get" approach will be more successful than striding hopefully into the unknown.”

Peter Newell “Pass: I don’t like it much but I expect that it will usually be 1 or 2 down and occasionally make or be 3 down. There is no guarantee we can make any game, and even if we can make game whether we will find the right one. If I bid, I would choose 4 - over which I would expect partner to bid a 5+ suit or 4NT with 1444, or 5/5 shapes. While I think pass gives us the best chance of a plus score, we will of course occasionally miss slam when partner has a good hand with a spade shortage. An uncomfortable pass…”
They are more doubtful about their action but Bruce is more certain:

Bruce Anderson “Pass: I cannot see any other sensible action, end of story.”

Others feel differently about their action:

Michael Ware “Pass: I see this question is an example of too hard! I guess to pass but hate it. Seems best chance of going plus (North didn't raise) but will concede -730 sometimes.”
Certainly true if South could wrap up 7 spade and say 2 club tricks. The lack of certainty of how to continue makes most decide on passing the double:

Nigel Kearney “Pass: This seems like the percentage action, especially since it's not clear how to proceed if we bid. With a very distributional hand, partner might have chosen 4NT instead of double.”
Two panellists did reluctantly decide to move:

Andy Braithwaite “4: What a revolting decision! Only options are pass and pray for five off-suit tricks, 4 in the hope partner may have 5, or 5 in the hope partner has 4.

At Teams, I prefer bidding to passing and bid 4 in preference to 5 but only just.”

While bringing some science into play is:

 

Michael Cornell “4: This is tough but the important thing is to find the right strain and to play at least our 8 card fit. So my bid is 4 which would normally be a tad stronger.

I would expect any direct suit bid from partner to be 5+ as with 2 (3)  4 card suits he will bid 4NT . Our level is over to partner but if he is decent with a short spade we are in a 30 point deck and the hand will play well.”

 

Well enough for you to raise 5 to slam? Perhaps, on the East hand below, your partner will indeed bid 6 with total control of the danger suit, spades.

 

It may be just conjecture or “an old wife’s tale” but if the take-out doubler of a major suit is going to be short, then they will be short in diamonds. Moving to a likely 4-3 fit (you can hope for 5 trumps in dummy) is dangerous when one opponent has 7 spades. Their partner might have 5 hearts.. but not this time. Partner did not have 4 diamonds either:

 

4 was the decision made at the table. The first 10 tricks could be taken after a spade lead though risking more meant taking a club finesse before cashing the 5^th diamond, the 10^th trick. So, declarer made 11.
The penalty was OK too, a certain +500 from 3x, 800 if South misguessed the club position. Yet, all 13 tricks could be made in diamonds, though 6 is where you would want to be. The Q could easily have been with North, as well as the K with the bidding identical... and the money may not be that great. 
Take the money…

if there’s money to be taken!

Let’s hope the pre-empt would be made at the other table, thus equalising the difficulty of the decision you had to make. The pre-empt kept us out of slam. Can you hear those three words being echoed from all corners: “pre-empts do…” Enough said!

Richard Solomon

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