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How Random are Opening Leads?

We all know that opening leads can backfire no matter how well intentioned and reasoned. We can only do our best with the sometime limited information available. So, what would be your choice with the hand below? You do know a little about declarer’s hand but not that much about dummy?

 

You know that South has 5 spades, 4+ clubs and is minimum for their initial 6-10 hcp range. “I don’t care” thought North as they powered directly to the spade game. It’s your lead?

It’s Jan’s Day

Jan Cormack

 

And, like last week’s, this is a very recent deal.

“For all those unfortunate souls who didn't lead a trump, you can chalk up
minus 620 on your score sheet..

 

West led the 2.  I played A followed by A discarding a heart and then took a diamond ruff.

Then came a club ruff, a second diamond ruff, another club ruff, K, and now a heart from dummy.  This was the position before declarer played that small heart from dummy and declarer at this point having scored the first seven tricks:

 

If East ruffs with the A and plays another trump, I can discard a club but will make three top spade tricks separately. That also happens if East ruffs with 8.

  If East discards a club. I ruff with the 7 and can now ruff another club with the K and then score either J or 10 and still make 10 tricks.

Contrast that with the initial lead of a trump to the ace and a trump continuation. South can ruff three diamonds in their own hand using AK as entries to dummy. At that point the K is still in dummy but the only way to dummy is via a club ruff (declarer has no trumps left) and will now lose another trump, two heart tricks and A, as well as the already lost A.

A lucky few extra points for the Auckland Women’s Provincial team.”

lead…

Best!

The contract can just be made even on a trump lead by double finessing hearts after ruffing diamonds from the North hand. When in with the J, East cannot attack clubs without giving a trick in the suit to South and a diamond continuation helps declarer.  This is extremely difficult and still backs up Jan’s theory that a trump lead is by far the hardest for South to negotiate.

Why a trump? West has honours in all side suits. There may be a day when any side-suit lead is the winner but in such a situation where dummy is known to have trump support and declarer is shapely, the trump lead is unlikely to give away much and could as here be a big winner.

The board occurred in the recent Inter-Provincial Championships. In the Open, Women’s and Senior events, each time a declarer received a trump lead to 4, the contract was defeated. Each time, the lead was a side-suit, it made.

Want to make your doubled contract?

Then, plan the play. One little clue is that when you do lead a club towards the South hand and insert 9, this loses to the ace in the West hand.

 

Oh, East holds A. West leads K and East does follow to trick 1!

Richard Solomon

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