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     Jan’s Day:  Fear the Worst.

If you survive when the news is bad, you are on the road to being a very good declarer. That is the theme behind today’s Jan’s Day article. The bad news was not a bad trump break, just the placement of one important card. Our declarer had plenty of chances to make their contract but failed to take what was pretty close to the 100% line. That would seem the right line to take.

 

It’s a tough choice deciding whether to play in 3NT or 4 of a major with a 5-3 major fit and two flattish hands. After South had opened 1 which guaranteed a 5-card suit, North chose 4here. You are playing Pairs.

West led T which went round to your jack. Plan the play.

The right line is…

Jan Cormack

 

"In a suit contract, when gaining the lead, a declarer should usually draw trumps provided that in doing so, they do not remove cards from their own hand or dummy which would be necessary for another purpose.

Our declarer today made the very simple but very common error of playing a round of trumps too early.

After winning J, South played a trump to dummy’s Q and led a spade to the king which lost to West’s ace. West shrewdly assessed the situation. They wished they had started with a trump lead though concluded it was not too late to switch to trumps. That might cause declarer some problems.

 

Indeed, a second round did, both defenders following. Declarer won in dummy and played a second round of spades, taken by West’s Q. West played their third small trump, meaning that South was left with three spade losers along with a club loser to be one down.

On a non-trump lead, to be sure of ruffing a spade in dummy, declarer must lead a low spade away from the king at trick 2. The defence can win to play a round of trumps. South can lead a second spade towards the king, in case East happened to have A. However, when West wins the lead to play a second trump, South can win in hand and use dummy’s last trump to ruff their third spade. They only lose two spades and a club.”

 

 

South above might have tried to recover after the defence had played a second round of trumps. Had the clubs broken 3-3 in the defenders’ hands, South would have made their contract even after “playing one round of trumps too many”. That was not the case but would have been a better line than the somewhat hopeful second round of spades.

Playing for the A with East would have succeeded 50% of the time. Of the other 50%, the 3-3 club break would have occurred a further 18 % of the time (half the time there was a 3-3 break). Together, that adds up to 68%. That’s well short of the 100% which a low spade at trick 2 would have brought declarer.

 

 

Are your eyes on the ball? For less experienced players and others.

 

South opened a 12-14 1NT. North showed 5 hearts via a transfer and then 4 spades (2). South showed a maximum but no interest in the majors by jumping to 3NT. West leads J. Plan the defence.

Richard Solomon

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