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For the right event.                       

A Wish comes true.

It sounds like when it happens you should then have made your contract. There was just one problem in being granted your wish and that was whether what you chose was the right thing to happen! It is not always what might seem the most obvious thing.

 

 

After passing initially, North felt they had some catching up to do when their partner showed a 20-22 point balanced hand. 4NT was invitational to slam and with 21, South took up the challenge. West led 10. Plan the play to make 12 tricks.

Looking at the above hands, a declarer had five club tricks, a couple of major suit AKs and no matter where the K was, two diamond tricks. That adds up to 11 and yet we need 12. If the Q was singleton or doubleton, then our 12^th trick could come from that suit though while by no means impossible, it was not a likely scenario. No heart finesse is possible while spades offer little hope for the 12^th trick.

Our declarer won the club lead in hand and played a second club to the dummy and played the Q which lost to West’s king. Back came a third club with East discarding a heart. These were the four hands:

 

 

East could see the original four card diamond suit in dummy and deduced correctly that their holding in that suit was crucial. Therefore, on the 4^th and 5^th rounds of clubs, bravely, they threw two spades. The contract could no longer be made even had South cashed their two top spades since whichever red card declarer threw from dummy, so East discarded in the same suit…and down 1 would have been the inevitable result.

Yet, our declarer tried diamonds first and there was no joy…contract down.

“I was unlucky with that diamond suit” reflected South afterwards. Were they?

as an aside, West's 10 seems unusual given their heart holding. However, 10 it was. Had 10 been led, declarer's problem would have been the same.

Had the diamond break been 3-3, whichever defender held the king, there would have been no problem. That break occurs only 36% of the time. So, we need to find a better way if we can, a way which still guarantees success when the 3-3 break occurs. While East discarded very well on the actual deal, they should not have been given the opportunity to do so.

Hope Misguided

It looked like South hoped that the diamond finesse would work, though even if it had, it did not guarantee the contract's success. Although they should not have played a high diamond honour at all, they should have hoped that West held the K, in other words, that the finesse would have failed! As long as West holds the K, South is guaranteed to make 3 diamond tricks….and along with 5 in clubs and 2 major AKs, that adds up to 12 tricks. That line works whenever West holds K (50% of the time) and also when East holds the K and the suit breaks 3-3 which is half of the 3-3 breaks, i.e., 18% (half of 36%). That adds up to 68% success, a lot better than the 36% our South played for.

In addition, there was always the chance the opposition would find discarding too hard and gift South their 12^th trick.

Is this the way?

So, declarer could have immediately run five rounds of clubs discarding two spades from their own hand. As you could see, East would have been under pressure to discard correctly. After that, declarer can play a diamond to the ace (no finesse!) and a second diamond. Bingo! Wish granted! Contract made.

Of course, there was one problem with that line. Had East held Kxx, they could rather annoyingly duck the second round of diamonds, thus preventing South from enjoying the 13^th diamond, stranded in dummy.

Try Again!

Therefore, the best line is to win the opening lead in the South hand and immediately play A and a second diamond, the club suit providing the important entry to dummy.

Note that had East held K with three others, the chances are that South would only have scored two diamond tricks, unless West’s doubleton was 109. The finesse was an illusion and South should have “wished” that it would fail. A lost finesse (which must not be taken..play A) guarantees success of the contract this time. A successful finesse does not mean the contract would succeed.

So, work out what you would like to happen…and then it might just do so!   

Damned if you do..and damned if you don’t...

 

Well, are you? Is the above statement true? What should you do? It seems unlikely you have a spade hold for no trumps! Any ideas? You are playing Teams.

Richard Solomon

 

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