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                But is it?

 SAFE BUT UNSOUND.

When you hold KQJT or QJ109 or J1098 you have very safe leads when you are defending a no-trump, or perhaps any contract. The leads range from the aggressive to the passive depending on which is the highest honour. (Maybe I should have included a suit headed by AKQJ!) It is so easy to make such a lead but is it always right?

 

Yet again, the opposition have all the points and your job is to find a good lead, the right lead, the overtrick minimising lead, the contract-beating lead. Yes, all of them in one card! Can you?

2 was a standard Multi, with South showing 20-22 balanced and in answer to North’s 3 major suit enquiry, no 4 or 5-card major. 2 was not forcing, better hearts than spades.

There is a story to this deal and the ones which preceded and followed it but first the lead. Get Sherlock Holmes on the job and the advice might be that you are leading the wrong black suit if you chose the J. Let’s look at the evidence.

The case for a spade lead

North has “better (by better, we really should say “longer”) hearts than spades.

North had an interest in a major suit. That could be because they have a 3-card major and are looking for a 5-3 fit though otherwise, they have at least 1x 4-card major. Had they a 5-card major, we would have expected to see a transfer. Thus, the bidding suggests North has 4 hearts and less spades since 2 did not show equal length in the majors.

South has no more than 3 cards in either major. Therefore, the most spades declarer can have between their hand and dummy is 6 with every likelihood of their being less than that number. West has 4 spades. East will have some as well, at least 3,likely more.

The case for a club lead

It is safe, unspectacular and safe.

The case for a red suit lead

Well, your partner is marked with at least 4 hearts though it seems unlikely you will win the lead again for a while to play a second heart if you hit the jackpot at trick 1. A recent hand played in 3NT saw dummy’s four card heart suit headed by 7 opposite declarer’s singleton 5…and a heart lead from JT6 would have been very lucrative for the defence. However, that was against the odds here. A diamond lead? Anyone’s guess but the “safe” club seems a better choice of the minor suits.

So, as a former sleuth would have said on the basis of the evidence: “Elementary, my dear Watson”. Was Sherlock right?

 

Too right, he was! North had unwittingly exposed too much about the North-South hands to West. A club lead would have threatened the contract though South would only to have won the second round and taken a successful heart finesse to come to 9 tricks. (3 hearts, 4 diamonds and one trick in each black suit).

After the spade lead, South can duck but just for one round. The heart finesse can be taken but East is not squeezed on the run of the diamond suit (they can throw a spade because they will have a heart winner instead) and after taking 8 winners South has to lead a club giving the defence the rest of the tricks.

So, listening to the bidding, should have given West enough evidence to look to a major suit, probably spades, rather than the “safe” club. It’s worth having Sherlock on lead, though at the time I did not think so!

Stay away, Sherlock!

The board occurred in the middle of a spectacularly good run of high cards for South in a Teams match. Indeed, I held a total of 82 high card points in four successive boards and achieved a total of six under-tricks with not one positive score! History records my partner held a total of 12 high card points!

I am sure you do not want to see the rest of the sordid details, though I will add that 2 of the boards were played in 3NT and the other two at a lower level! The match was proving a declaring nightmare for the South player who got to the wheel at least 4 more times after the hands with a deluge of honours, with rather less high-card points. Three more failures were followed in quick succession by a deal where there were at least 9 top winners. When South cashed those winners to record his first plus score, dummy and the two defenders got up from their chairs to applaud and congratulate the frazzled declarer! I jest not!

There would have been no such story had West been a little “safer” on their choice of opening lead to the above deal.   

And talking of strong hands:

 

Do you agree with South’s opening bid? Whether or not you do, what would you bid next? Just to put a frazzle on your face, 2 shows 0-5 hcp and 6+ spades.

See you on Monday.

Richard Solomon 

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