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You wish!

The Best Guess is “No Guess”.

How often have you been in the situation at the bridge table when you know whichever card of two you play will be wrong? Typically, it occurs when you lead towards KJ with absolutely no idea where the ace and queen are, except they are not in declarer’s hand and do not seem to be in dummy!

“Heads they win: tales you lose!”

So, if there is anything you can do to avoid that decision, then do so. Is there?

 

2 was 4^th suit forcing and 3  a slam try though North had no appetite beyond game.

West led Q. Declarer won and laid down their three top spades with West discarding a diamond on the third round.

Where did you win the first trick?

Which two cards did you discard from dummy?

What do you play at trick 5?

At the table, the declarer scored one out of three correct answers which was not a recipe for 10 tricks. They took dummy’s ace at trick one and played three top spades discarding a heart and a diamond from dummy.

Then, at trick 5, they played a heart to the king which lost to the ace (you knew that was coming, didn’t you?!) with East cashing the high J before returning a second diamond which declarer won with their king.

Having two red losers to come, and already having two tricks in the "out" basket, drastic measures were needed and that meant a club finesse…and when that lost as well, the loser count had increased to 5! -200.

All because they misguessed the heart position? No way! They went badly wrong at trick 1!

 

If there is no trump loser, then declarer is safe for 10 tricks with at worst three red suit losers. However, a 4-2 break is more common than a 3-3 (48% to 36%). We will not even consider a 5-1 break but they happen too! Therefore, either a good heart guess has to be made or perhaps another way if there is one.

It may not have appeared significant where South won the first trick..but it was. Up to this point, we have not mentioned the club suit but it was the key to success. Even if spades broke 3-3, South can get rid of their near certain diamond loser on the club suit, as long as they retain the A as a certain entry to dummy.

The important Trick 1 Decision

Therefore, it may just be for the overtrick but it may also be essential to win trick 1 with K, in the South hand. No-one is going to take a first round spade finesse, even if East plays low! So, win with K, cashing the high spades. The discards from dummy was the easiest question, the only one South got right.

It does not matter what you discard as long as neither discard is a club.

Then, trick 5. Remember the saying: “The Best Guess is “No Guess”. Do not touch hearts at all. Take the club finesse, K then to the J. If the finesse works, you discard the diamond loser on A and can now afford to misguess hearts…no guess though if West held Qxx. When the club finesse loses, you still have that A as entry for two discards.

All you lose is one heart, one club and one spade.

Since we will continue to misguess in these situations what seems far more than 50% of the time, try to avoid guessing. Bet on a certainty. They are much more likely to lead the field home!   

It’s 50:50 as well for tomorrow, no multi-choice but simply a case of whether you open the bidding or not.

You are playing Teams, are first in hand with only your side vulnerable:

 

What do you reckon? See you on “(Level) One Day?"

Richard Solomon

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