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                    LONG ODDS AND CLUBS

What are the odds of you winning Lotto, not a welcome but unstartling $30 or $40 but the real big money? OK, I know, multi billion to one. “Never” or “impossible” would be a much quicker way of describing the chance. That’s certainly correct if you never buy a ticket!

Do you know what the odds of picking up an 11 card suit are? If you are quick thinking, you can give a very intelligent answer: “better than winning Powerball.” Actually, I have it on reliable authority that the answer is 2,746,692 to 1. Did you pick up such a holding during the 24 or 48 or even 150 hands you played last week?

For seven players at the Mt Albert Bridge Club, the answer of course was “yes”. Actually, we can blind you with an even greater percentage since the shape was as extreme as it could be for an 11 card suit: that’s right, two voids…and the chances of that shape are much closer to your Powerball chances: 8,697,862 to 1.

So, here’s a bidding problem for you as North? As luck would have it, they are vulnerable and your side is not.

 –

 –

 QJ

 KQJT9875432

West          North         East            South

                                                          Pass

1               ?

Perhaps the answer lies in your own personality. Do you wish to undergo a personality test? Probably not but I gave the problem, if it is indeed a problem at this vulnerability, to 10 grand masters…and got five different answers. So, what is your choice?

This is how our grand-masters voted:

7                4

6                1

5                3

3NT               1

X                   1

The last two are interesting choices which may succeed in keeping the opponents out of slam. So, too, might 5. Yet, how many tricks in spades can the opponents make? The 7 bidders were going to give East an immediate guess. These then were the four hands.

 

At Mt Albert, three North players ended as declarers, one in 6 and two in 7, all doubled. All three Easts led a spade and the declarers escaped with just two losers.

Two West players played in game making overtricks while two declared in 6 and made… 5!

On the K lead, West would discard a diamond, and would remove the A and draw trumps. West does not know how many clubs North has but may as well play AK. Although double voids are rare, South is still favourite to have length in hearts. So, lead a heart to the king and that 10 will provide a very helpful heart discard and 12 tricks to a very relieved declarer.

Those North players who were not declarer are going to have to wait an awfully long time for their next 11 card suit with two voids, maybe as long as their next big Lotto win.

Thanks to Gerald Norman for the hand details.

Richard Solomon

 

 

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