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easier than 6!

The National Pairs : Where Grand Slam is easier than small slam!

The National Pairs was held at Picton last weekend with 32 pairs, mainly from the South Island and Wellington competing. Day 1 saw 2 session qualifying with the top three qualifiers being Jan Cormack- Leon Meier, Max Morrison – Alan Grant and Jack James – Michael Ware. Right behind them were Tim Schumacher – Graeme Tuffnell. The top 16 qualified for the final, the rest for the Plate.

However, Sunday proved to be much harder for two of the top 4 pairs. Jan and Leon could only average just over 46% while Max and Alan averaged just under 50%. Michael and Jack could only score 45.83% on the Sunday morning.

It was thus no surprise that the most consistent pair of the weekend, Tim and Graeme, came through to win the event with Sunday percentages of 58.33 and 64.97. Michael and Jack recovered in the afternoon to score 65.65% which left them a clear second with Kate Davies and John Patterson 3rd, Max and Alan 4^th and Ashburton’s Trish and Peter Downward 5^th.

The Plate was won by Chris Marshall and Pam Dravitzki from Maurice Carter and Charmaine Hanbury-Webber and Diane Donnelly and Vicki Adnams.

Lucky for some

Matchpoint Pairs is a form of the game which leaves one at times at the mercy of one’s opponents who if they do everything right will record a good score. It also helps when “Lady Luck” is on the opponents’ side too.

On the following deal from the second session of the Final and Plate, the top two pairs in the Final had the misfortune to be sitting East-West, with their opponents being Jan Cormack and Leon Meier and Bridget Hannaway and Tony Quinlivan. So, here you are, as South. How do you play 6 on the lead of the K (with no interference bidding)? How do you also play 7 with the same lead?

The easier solution is to 7. The simple finesse is 50% and unless you feel for some reason that the Q will drop doubleton offside, no other line is better. Dropping a singleton Q in the East hand will not prevent a trump loser. So, go for it, a spade to the jack and if Q has not appeared on your right, play AK and, as long as East found a second spade, claim.

There is also a slight added clue in that looking at 2 or 3 small spades, West might have led a trump against a grand slam. After all, one’s opponents would never be missing Q, would they? That West chose K might therefore suggest they held Q, only a small inference.

Lower and safer?

What though against 6? K from KQ is quite normal and no particular inference can be drawn about West’s failure to lead a trump.

The spade finesse appears to be 50% and effectively, you are down if it fails. Yet, there is an alternative. If you cash AK and the Q comes down in 2 rounds, you can draw the remaining trump to make all 13 tricks. Even if the Q does not appear (and the suit breaks 3-2), you only need a 3-2 diamond break (or, less likely.. the player with one diamond only to have 2 trumps) and you will still be making 12 tricks.

I owe the following percentage calculations to my percentage guru (thank you, Patrick) but including the chance of doubleton Q (27.2%) and of diamonds breaking 3-2 when Q does not come down in 2 rounds (27.7%), the chances of success by playing AK are around 59%.

Meanwhile, the simple finesse is not 50% since the spade pips are not good enough to draw trumps if West has 4 spades headed by the Q, 10 or both. The simple finesse is only superior when the Q is held by West along with two others.Thus, the simple finesse works only about only 35% of the time.

It would be reasonable to say the finesse only gains when West holds Qxx and has a singleton or void diamond. 

35% or 59%? Which line would you take?

Well, back to reality. After Leon, South, upgraded his 14 count to a strong 1NT (15-17), Jan headed onwards and upwards. Holding a 17 count herself, she believed every pair in the Final would bid to 6. They were not having a good day on Sunday and therefore in the hope of changing their fortune or shall we call it “catch-up bridge”, she bid to grand.

Meanwhile, Tony Quinlivan, also opened the South hand 1NT and Bridget Hannaway also drove to slam but did discover they were missing the rather useful Q. So, she settled for 6.

Jan and Leon won their swing when the spade suit behaved. 7 making. That was very unlucky for Graeme Tuffnell and Tim Schumacher who suffered a complete bottom. As you can see, that did not spoil their otherwise very successful two days.

Tony did not do the calculation. Had he done so, he would have played AK and then started on diamonds… down 1! Tony took the first round spade finesse and scored an overtrick. That was very unlucky for Michael Ware and Jack James but they still posted 65.65% on the final of the four rounds.

Interestingly, no other pair in the final reached slam. A sequence that started 1 1 2 would not have got North overly interested in slam. Perhaps, South could try 3 as their second bid (certainly a 21/2 diamond bid!) A Weak 3 Jump Overcall might add to dampen their enthusiasm. One pair did reach 5 though the others were lower.

Of the 8 North-Souths in the Plate, the only pair in slam, in 6, failed to make.

So much for catch-up bridge. Actually, it was probably a good ploy for Leon and Jan. They took the right line to make all 13 tricks and may have failed had they settled for small slam! Whoever said it was easier to make 13 tricks than 12!

Richard Solomon

p.s. I would be happy to forward the complete calculation of the percentages in 6 to anyone interested.

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