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Pearson Points to Passing!

The two hands below have some things in common but one point of difference. The bidding in each case starts in an identical way.

West                    North             East                South

Pass                      Pass                Pass                ?

Easy to follow? Well, the first similarity is that both occurred at the bridge table in Pairs competitions within the last week. Take a look:

 

    

 

The hands have similarities, 12 high card points each, a sprinkling of honours around three suits, 4- card heart suits and just 2 small spades each.

That last point is particularly significant if one applies “Pearson’s Rule” which says when deciding whether or not to open in 4^th seat, you should add up your high card points to the number of spades you hold. If the answer comes to less than 15, then you should pass the hand in.

So, in both the above cases, we should pass the board in, having only 14 “Pearson Points” (12 hcp + 2 spades). In the first case, the board was passed in but South decided to open the second hand 1 (playing a 15-17 1NT opening).

Let’s see if South…and Pearson were correct!

 

At the table, the board was passed in. Had South opened a 12-14 1NT, East is very likely to enter the auction after two more passes with a bid showing the majors. Not only should this action cut North-South from finding a heart fit, but it should enable East-West to go plus in 2.

West would try to either ruff hearts in the West hand or clubs in the East. Let’s assume West aims for heart ruffs after North leads a low trump (best for the defence). West should manage 2 ruffs in the West hand, three more trump tricks and may make an overtrick if they guess the diamond position correctly.

If South does open 1, North-South should find at least one of their fits but are very unlikely to make more than 8 tricks in either clubs or hearts. With East-West again likely to compete in spades, North-South will be struggling to get a better score than passing the board in.

Only if East-West do not compete over 1NT are North-South likely to make a positive score.

 

After South did open the bidding, they soon wished they had not when North jumped to 2NT showing a good 10 or 11 hcp and no major. South could not pass quickly enough!

East led a spade to the king and ace. North tried a heart to the king, ducked, and then a diamond to the Q and East’s A. In practice, East tried a second spade which soon gave North 3 tricks in each major, a diamond and 2 club tricks (“you had a good hand” quipped North) though even had East exited passively with a second diamond, North could win, play hearts successfully and still come to 9 tricks.

Had South opened a 12-14 1NT, they would either have played there or in 2NT once they had denied their partner’s invitation. With Stayman not used, West could choose either major to lead. A spade is obviously better for the defence, certainly better than a club. Again, South can play on hearts and although declarer will only score 2 spade tricks, the defence will struggle to take more than 3 spades and 2 red aces.

Even with the cards being quite favourable for North-South, about half the North-South declarers recorded negative scores. Imagine if the heart lay-out had not been so kind or had North’s spade holding not been quite so good.

Passing is good!

The results on the first board were not conclusive as a number of North-Souths were allowed to play and make 1NT. However, passing the board in was worth approximately 60% for North-South in an A Point tournament.

I think North-South were fortunate to get a positive result from the second board after opening the bidding. Meanwhile, most pairs would settle for a 60% score on every board in a tournament!

Another reason to pass is that many pairs strain to open with both major suits, even sometimes with 11 hcp! This increases the chances that the spade suit does belong to our opponents. 

While it is always nicer to play every board if we can, the evidence from the above is still that Pearson’s Law is alive and well…and if you pass the board in, you can still play it for fun and prove your judgement was correct!

Richard Solomon

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