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A little (in partner's hand) means a lot…..well, undertricks!

Have you ever not known what to lead? Dumb question? Frequently! Well, in that case, you will find yourself in familiar territory today. The play will not take place until you select a card from your hand. Well? Which one?

 

South’s 1 promised at least two clubs and their 1NT rebid 12-14 hcp and did not deny a major. You are playing Teams.

An embarrassment of riches in your hand, you may say. What does that leave for your partner? Not much!  Your take-out double was the easiest bid you have had for ages but finding the best opening lead? Well, at least there are only 4 suits from which to choose!

Even though South’s club suit may be short, the singleton club lead barely got a mention from those Panellists who offered an answer. There was not much support for dummy’s suit, diamonds, either.

Stephen Blackstock “Zia might try Q, and that has attractions. It would help to know if North would bid a major ahead of any diamond suit, as that would make a major lead slightly preferable to a diamond.”

Wayne Burrows “ I really have no idea what to lead.  One idea was to try a diamond and hope for the J in partner's hand. Then I can build a diamond trick and with the help of a favourably placed 9 perhaps two tricks. If one of my ace-queens scores two tricks then we can beat this. However, against that, it is quite likely that dummy has long diamonds and therefore that partner has a shortage reducing the chance of the J with partner.”

Many players do by-pass the diamond suit if they are relatively weak and have a 4-card major. Here, North is obviously strong enough to raise to game and does not have a major suit, anyway, as they would have checked for a major fit after 1NT. So, as Wayne says, the chance of beating the game with a diamond lead is diminished.   

So, to the majors. It’s a guess but I would have thought that a heart lead is preferable as Nigel explains:

 

Nigel Kearney “A: Not a pleasant hand from which to lead. One of the majors is probably right and if I can find partner with a jack, we will be on the way to setting up some tricks. The heart has more upside though a spade is slightly safer. By leading the A, I will see the dummy and partner's signal and can consider whether to continue or switch. If I do continue I can decide whether to try to pin the J or lead low and drop a doubleton king. It would be a pity to start with a low heart and find one opponent with Jx and the other Kxx.”

 

Peter Newell “A: any lead could be right - the key reason for leading the A is being able to hold the first trick and have the ability to switch at trick 2 if leading a heart is wrong as it may not be too late. A is close second choice but prefer a heart as more likely to develop 3 tricks than in spades as need less from partner....”

 

Andy Braithwaite “A: Partner can’t have more than a queen and more likely a Jack or two so I lead A to have a look at dummy and partner's card. I am going to be end-played at some stage so will try to get an indication from dummy as to how to proceed.”

Wayne Burrows “A: Another idea is to try and find partner's major length. Given I do not know where that might be, then I can buy a lot of information: 13 cards in the dummy and partner's signal by leading an ace. Of course, the information I buy might be that I made the wrong lead. My simulations tell me that the presence of the 10 improves the chance of a heart lead and hope to be able to use the A as an entry to cash any established winners.”

Stephen Blackstock “ A..or A: At least when dummy goes down I may then know what is best, perhaps too late to switch successfully. I doubt if anyone will be persuaded by the Panel's answers that there is a superior and logical solution to a problem as random as this. A club into declarer's suit is unattractive and a major queen peculiar. I have no strong feelings about which of my other ten cards to choose.”

Our partner has very little and our strong heart suit requires partner to have less than were we to pin our hopes on spades. Leading the ace gives us time to switch though we may have given away the 9^th trick by making the wrong initial choice. Remember, we are playing Teams and our aim is to beat the contract and not simply restrict overtricks. Thus, I prefer an ace to a low card:

 

Bruce Anderson “2: that lead gives good chance of setting up heart tricks and who knows partner may even have the king.

If partner has an entry (a club trick perhaps) defensive prospects are very good even if declarer has KJ. Hopefully we can make 3 heart tricks, a club trick, and A after partner returns my suit.

Obviously a spade lead could be right but I am taking the view a heart lead is more likely to succeed.”

 

I agree a heart is more likely and it is possible your partner has a club trick though that is unlikely to be higher than J. I do, though, prefer an ace  to leave us in control at trick 2.

While there is a certain randomness about which major, I agree with the Panel that we should pin our hopes on hearts. Were we right?

 

A would get an encouraging signal from East. We would follow that up with Q and hope we can survive. 5 rounds of clubs would mean our discarding a diamond, 10 and 2 spades or a diamond and 3 spades. With East clinging on to their heart suit, South cannot find a 9^th trick. 2 initial lead does offer South a glimmer of hope as J at trick 1 blocks the suit.

Meanwhile, there was no time to switch as A and a heart switch gives South 9 tricks. No wonder “Zia” diamond lead this time, either.

That glimmer of hope in the heart suit this time came to fruition. Maybe the successful lead was random but it does seem the heart lead probably had the best chance.

Richard Solomon

 

 

 

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