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Percentage Problems.

You reach a pretty reasonable 6C contract and there are only two cards of interest which you cannot see…and they are both minor suit kings. You would not want to lose to both of them.

 

Your partner does not mess around after your 2 response. Maybe on some days you could be cold for grand slam (maybe this day?) but opposite a minimum response, there could well be a loser. At least, there would not be two quick losers with all North’s aces!

You have been left to play the slam on the lead of 10. What is your line? Would it be any different if West led 10?

The heart lead looks more comfortable. A simple approach is the percentage one which is to finesse (gains when East has Kx or Kxx and only loses were West to hold singleton K). Even if the finesse loses, you could still take the diamond finesse, or play for a 3-3 spade break or the less likely J10 doubleton. The odds there do favour the finesse.

Yet, you can still survive by not finessing (a 2-1 break either way would help) as long as you can get to discard two diamonds on the spades.You can make even if the spade break was 4-2, by not playing dummy’s A at trick 1. So, win K and lay down A leaving just K outstanding. It does the defender with a doubleton spade no good to ruff the third round as both red suit aces will still be in dummy to establish the second discard for South’s other losing diamond.

Alternatively, declarer can play the second club immediately. If West wins and switches to a diamond, South can take the ace and will still make on any 4-2 break. If East has K, they can do declarer no damage. Chances, thus, seem very good by ignoring the finesse.

What, though, on a diamond lead? The diamond could, of course, be a shortage or even away from the king. Again, one round of clubs followed by three rounds of spades may well be the winning line. Declarer will still survive if the defender with K has 4 spades.

That sounds a reasonable shot. What though if West had bid 2, Michaels style (weak or strong at least 5-5 in the major suits) and leads 10? A shortage..but how short? You know West has at least one club or else they would not lead a shortage….and you know there is a bad spade break. You cannot rely on the spade suit for two discards unless West's shape was 5512 and East had a singleton J or 10.  It would seem back to the basic percentage line that East should have more clubs than West. You will have to get the right club position as you have an inevitable diamond loser.

Did you?

 

If you suffered that opposition bidding, as North, you would have done better to bid 6NT to protect against the initial diamond lead, though you would still be under pressure to avoid losing to both minor kings. Perhaps, with such chronic major suits, West might indeed have one minor suit king.

Without that overcall (hardly a wonder bid), South will make their slam quite comfortably. Some who received that 10 lead were not so lucky. 

Richard Solomon

Round 3 of Trans Tasman competion is tomorrow night Friday at 8pm NZ time. With a 20 minute delay, there is a kibitzer link here   https://www.aj92.com.au/results/results.asp?yr=2024&dir=ttc

 

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