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When a Guess is a Certainty.

Some guesses are more certain than others. In view of that, it was strange that more declarers did not make the 3NT contract on the deal below. The omens early on looked bad for the declarer:

 

South owned up to at least 5 spades and then following their partner’s strength showing double, to a heart hold before North asked them to make 9 tricks in no-trumps. West led 6 to East’s Q. South ducked this and also East’s 4 return. West continued a third heart and South was faced with 2 awkward decisions, what to discard from dummy at trick 3 and which suit to attack after winning A. The two problems were of course connected. What would be your answer to both questions?

There were two problems for South, the first being communication between the two hands and the second being that, with a couple of hearts waiting to be cashed, East was very much the danger hand. Yet, the diamond finesse could only be taken one way while if attacking spades, South would be down very quickly if East held K.

While South could come to an easy 9 tricks if diamonds broke 3-3 with West holding K, playing for that unlikely lie meant discarding dummy’s low spade in order to score 5 diamonds, 3 clubs (maybe 4) and two major aces. That, of course, is 10 tricks, which leads to seeing the best and safest discard to the third round of hearts, a diamond. Making 9 tricks here would be good, even though overtricks in Pairs are handy. So, discard a diamond, a potential winner.

There is not much between deciding which suit to attack. You need a spot of good fortune either way. So, after throwing a diamond, South took a successful diamond finesse but short-term joy soon evaporated when East discarded a club on the A. South did likewise and turned their attention to spades. They played A and a second spade. East followed with 6 and 9, West with 4. Which spade would you play from the South hand on the second round?

 

 

That’s right. It is no guess. East is not on lead with K to beat your contract. You know where K is. You have to hope not to lose to J as well or else you would be defeated. No guess needed and the contract is soon secured, Q providing the entry back to the South hand.

East appeared to discard a winner (their club trick) to keep losing spades though had they thrown a spade, J would have appeared on the second round.  Also, discarding a heart would sound like giving up any hope of winning the lead later in the play.

Note that  it was essential that declarer not only withheld their A until the third round (as the heart break was almost certainly 5-3) but that they discarded a potential winner from dummy at trick 3 and in a club a potential winner from their own hand on the second round of diamonds. They had to keep their options open when the hoped for even diamond break did not occur.

Although East’s discard did not really matter, they too had to discard their likely club winner to hope South would misguess the spade position. Yet, really, there was no guess.

Richard Solomon

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