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Insurance?

There are two things certain about today’s problem. Firstly, your partner, West, has a very good hand and secondly problems like this do not go away. They are why we keep playing! (Believe that if you wish!) You are faced with very little and must decide who can reasonably make what. No problem! Is there?

 

The opposition are opening 5-card majors and your quiet life is disturbed by partner’s second double. What to do?

For some, there is no problem.

Anthony Ker“4NT: pick a minor. I don't fancy our chances in defence and we may have a decent contract in one of the minors. Partner must have a fit in one of them.”

Andy Braithwaite “4NT: Partner has asked me to bid unless I have defence to 4. So, 4NT must ask for partner’s minor. My hand is not great but those intermediates must give us a chance of making a 5- level contract opposite partner’s controls.

Steph Jacob “4NT: pick a minor. Partner’s double was take-out first time round. Their hand has not changed.

Do you always do want partner wants? Can you make 5 of a minor? Can the opponents make 4? Some questions to ponder.

Michael Ware “4NT: Unanimous surely! Partner doubles for take-out and we have both minors...”

One day, Michael, the Panel will be unanimous but not this one. There is doubt expressed by others even if they reach Michael’s conclusion:

Wayne Burrows “4NT: Awkward with almost no defence and limited offence. Often, I will pass in such situations arguing that four defensive tricks are easier than eleven offensive tricks. However, here I am not so sure. My five-card suit and minor minor-suit honours may combine well with partner. We could easily have a five-five or five-four minor fit and partner even having a six-card minor with a 6430 shape is not out of the question.  Against that a four-four fit and a bad break is a possibility too. 

Often, it will be right to bid if either 4 or 5 of a minor is making, assuming we find the right minor. I think that is more likely than neither contract makes or that we are way too high in 5 of a minor and that we missed a substantial penalty. Therefore I bid. Even when wrong occasionally the opponents will bid on to 5. 
My bid is 4NT offering two places to play - here both minors.”

Leon Meier “4NT: I'm thinking either pass or 4NT pick a minor, and not loving either option but leaning towards 4NT for the reason that they could easily be making 4 and it isn't necessarily easy for them to double us in 5 of a minor…and we may even make sometimes.”

We know the opponents have a 10-card fit. If that were an 11-card fit, that would increase our chances of making our contract…and the opponents’making theirs.

However, the bidders are not united in their action:

Nigel Kearney “5: Good problem. At match-points I would pass as I expect neither side is making most of the time. At IMPs there is more upside to bidding. Either 4NT or 5 could work out better, but over 4NT, I would expect partner to choose clubs with equal length so there's a good chance 5 will get us to a better fit. My diamonds can also withstand bad breaks better as we can take the first heart ruff in the short hand. If partner has a singleton heart and four clubs and one of the opponents has Axxx or Kxxx, it might not be too pleasant in 5.”

and then we have the passers:

 Michael Cornell “Pass: This is pretty close but I pass.

I do not think I have enough to bid at the 5 level even though we are guaranteed a fit. If we can make 5 of a minor, partner will probably be bidding a 6^th.

A normal hand for partner is something like 4-1-4-4 with 3+ quick tricks so they should be down 1 or 2 and 11 tricks is no “gimme” for us.

I estimate total tricks to be around 19 ( maybe18 ) so even if we can make 5 of a minor, they should be 2 off and therefore no damage.

 Damage occurs when we go minus instead of them.”  
or when the opposition make 10 of those tricks and we can only make 9. 

 

Bruce Anderson “Pass: unless the first in hand vulnerable opener is relatively weak, our opponents’ outside strength could well mean we will  be too high if I bid 4NT looking for our better minor suit fit. This is obviously a guess as a five level contract could be on a finesse that is working, and with their big fit, 4x is unlikely to see a sizeable  penalty. Nonetheless, I am passing, taking the view 4 and five of a minor are all contracts that are going down.”

 

So, armed with comments like Michael’s and Bruce’s in my mind, I elected to take what might be just a small plus…but +200 is better than -200. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Perhaps, “insurance” would have been wise:

 

With  perfect spade and diamond cards for South, 10 tricks were assured in 4x. Meanwhile, North would do well to lead their singleton against 5 which would not necessarily be doubled. To beat this contract by two tricks, South would win A at trick 2 and play their lowest club back requesting an under-lead of A after the club ruff. A second club ruff would complete the defence for +200 or + 500.

At Nigel Kearney’s table, South would be on lead and is more likely to lead a low heart than a low club. If North does not know find the club switch, then the fall of 10 on the first round of clubs would allow 5 to make.

Today, it was right to bid on. I am not sure the decision is as clear as some of our Panel think…but bidding 4NT should enable East to go back to their “quiet life” being dummy in partner’s chosen minor.

Until the next time....

Richard Solomon

 

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