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Avoidable?        

How unlucky?

Was what followed bad luck or could what did happen have been anticipated and been avoided? What then would you lead to 5H after the following auction?

 

 

3 was a weak jump overcall though, vulnerable opposite a passed partner, could be a little stronger.

It would seem West had followed all the basic bidding guidelines in that they had bid to game quickly. They had the values to make 4 a reasonable contract. Indeed, North thought so as they bid on to 5. East, the opening bidder, passed the decision round to West, the player in your partnership who bid to game.
West passed, unwilling to push on to 5 with defensive values and under the circumstances, a flattish hand. They were closer to doubling as their partner had opened the bidding. They were not sure and therefore left South to try to make 11 tricks.

All good but what about the opening lead? They chose A and with that went the chance of recording a plus score.

 

South ruffed and then ruffed three rounds of clubs and two more rounds of spades. Back in hand, South could draw trumps, cash A and leave their opponents to take two diamond tricks at the end. Contract made.

The decision to pass out 5 rather than bid on to 5 was correct but only if West found a trump lead. There should certainly be three tricks for the defence against 5, maybe four, if the declarer does not play trumps correctly.

When both declarer and dummy appear to be short on high cards, and West knew that would be the case here, then ruffing in dummy is usually their way of making extra tricks. Many times, the cashing of the ace of one’s long suit can be wrong, not just in the somewhat unlucky situation for the defence where both declarer and dummy have a void but where Kx or Kxx of the defence’s long suit is sitting in dummy…and the declarer ruffs the opening lead. Also, declarer may need to lose the lead to start ruffing in dummy. An initial trump lead may be needed to cut down the available ruffs. 

On a trump lead here, South can ruff two of their spades in dummy but there will be a spade loser to add to the two diamond tricks…and 5 will be defeated.

Nothing is certain when it comes to opening leads, especially against high-level contracts, but in any situation where declarer could be relying on ruffs/cross-ruffs, there is a good case for a trump lead at trick 1.

Richard Solomon

Tomorrow will be the last Daily Hand of 2023. I hope you have enjoyed reading this feature. It will start up again on January 3^rd  2024.
Thanks as well to the members of our Panel who contribute regularly and promptly with their answers. They demonstrate that even experts have different approaches to bidding problems. 

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