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Crampt for space.

You know the feeling. The bidding is already up to the 5-level before you can say a word…and you know that your word may well be the last word. You try and gauge what your partner holds by what the opposition have bid and hope you are within range of their actual hand.
Well, it’s a change from 1NT passed out! 

 

It’s Pairs and it’s your bid!

I do agree with Bruce’s last comment below, if not his choice of bids:

Bruce Anderson “5: We could be cold for a grand in hearts if partner has strong hearts and A.

5 is to be considered, so as to cater for partner holding long strong hearts and little else, especially since a diamond lead is likely.

 

But will the auction end at 5? West, in addition to a big diamond fit, could well have a long strong club suit. E/W is vulnerable after all. If so, and if either East or West bids on as one or the other is void in hearts, we will need a spade lead to stop a slam in diamonds. If we are left to play in 5,  that contract is a big chance on a diamond lead. I suspect expert opinion will be divided over what to bid over 5.
With a plan that he admits is unlikely to work is:

Stephen Blackstock “6: I have to guess what is going on here. Is West bidding 5 as a make or near make at this vulnerability (likely), or does he think we have a slam and hopes we will stop short or choose to double hoping that +500 is enough? However, as AKxxxxx and K is enough to make 6 (and that is not a lot to ask), I will confirm the diamond void and give South a chance to bid 7 with long, strong hearts and the A. That part probably is a lot to ask!”

and with slightly more optimism:

Nigel Kearney “6: This seems like the best way to get to grand if partner has the right cards. It shows heart support and the diamond void. I just hope we are on the same wavelength as to which other cards partner needs to bid on but I think if he has AKxxxx  plus A then he will reason I would not be inviting seven unless I have everything else covered.”

Wayne Burrows “6: We have to guess. That is what pre-empts do to us. There is no guarantee we are even making anything at the five-level, for example, with AK and another ruffed could be how the defence is starting off. Partner's 3 overcall, while constructive, did not promise club honours or even all of the missing heart honours.

Nevertheless, I think it is significantly more likely we are making slam than going down at the five-level so I will be optimistic. In fact, on the other hand, opposite as little as AKJxx and A, we might have a grand slam and partner's overcall could be considerably better than that.

 

While I am far from a sure plus at the six-level, I think the real issue is whether or not we can make 7. If I bid 6, partner is almost never raising given we have the diamond control. So 6, middle of the road, or 6 playing for all the marbles? I think 6 is where the money is. Partner will not raise with less than the AKxxx and A given that we have all the spades and our 6 warns partner that the A is wasted.” 

There are two factors which have not really been mentioned up to now. Say our partner does not hold A and indeed misses the Q as well? Also, is a diamond lead likely against either slam especially if you announce or imply a diamond void?

That latter point is why most the Panel chose to play in hearts rather than spades…and the two together make our next Panellist show caution:

 

Peter Newell “5: Tough problem. Rather a guessing game here.  West jumping to bid 5 Vul vs not is likely to be just based on diamond support and shape – i.e. I expect a few high cards as well and these are most likely in clubs. West likely has a  2 suiter with the minors with shortage in at least 1 major.  East is likely short in the other major.  So I think they could easily make 5 and we are likely to make at least 5 of a major, in which case it is clearly right to bid. So which suit and what level are the questions? 

I lean slightly to hearts as partner may have K, and a club lead through partner wouldn't be good. If I were to bid 5, one would say a club lead is quite likely unless East had the A and chose to lead it.  It is possible that hearts could be awkward on a diamond lead shortening the trumps if partner had spade shortage. However, it is possible that partner is short in spades and there is a bad spade break.  While on this hand we could make anywhere between 3 and 7 of a major, it is impossible to tell. I'm going to bid at the 5 level as I think that we will get a reasonable score for this, whereas bidding 6 and going down will be poor.  Of course, the opponents could bid 6 and then we get another chance to bid 6 or double them...”

However, I would quite like to take my chances at the 6-level, like the following:

Anthony Ker “6: West is unlikely to be looking at AK  and if they lead a non-club our prospects are good. And if I look confident enough they may well dive in 7.”
Michael Cornell “6: has a great chance of being cold but a guess. Every chance they will dive which I will pass to partner, sort of showing my diamond void.”

No “sort of”, Michael…definite unless you held A. It does, though, seem a little unusual that one’s opponents will dive over 6 at adverse vulnerability.
Andy Braithwaite “ 6: as I want to protect partner’s club holding in case it is Kx or Kxx. Partner’s hearts must be good as there are no high cards left besides the AKJ and a club honour or two- opponents must have 11 diamonds at least so most of the honours as well.”

I remember a top player many years ago advocate the use of 5NT as key card when the opponents were unkind enough to deprive you of 4NT. Assuming we are going to slam, that might work here, as long as partner’s almost certain club honour was not the A!

It would seem West does hold more than diamond cards which might put us off “grand” thoughts. Could we make 6? Well, yes, no, maybe!

 

What? I will leave the country before I am hounded by Panellists who would say they would never have bid 3 as South. Surely the Q was the K? Maybe it should have been but you have to make decisions as you see them at the time and there have been and will be worse bids made than 3 above.
In reality, it was not the absence of the K which caused the slam to be defeated but that those who bid quickly to the 6-level rather advertised that a diamond lead was not the best for the defence. West chose A and the appearance of J and dummy’s diamond void made the continuation obvious.
Declarer was left to play trumps correctly to escape for down one!

So, no early Christmas present for North-South with only Peter Newell of our Panel recording a plus score.

Richard Solomon 

and a reminder:

Support our keen Youth players and improve your bidding at the same time.

A great fundraiser bidding challenge is coming up very soon (21^st December) to help support youth players that are travelling to the Australian Youth Week in Canberra in January.

 People who sign up (and pay a donation) are emailed 15 hands with different scenarios. During a live panel session on 21^st December, you can compare your answers with those of an expert panel.

You can find out more or register here: https://ausyouthbridgeweek.wixsite.com/australian-youth-bri?fbclid=IwAR0jS8DsPMTOsH0vo7UJInOFaMteIazkc0SXihwjxYQk6UdbC9BAe-E3NYI

 

Please contact sam.coutts@nzbridge.co.nz for more information. There are different levels of contribution starting at NZ$20.00.

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