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Everybody’s guessing!

Pre-emption is a delicate art. You want to make it as hard as possible for your opponents, to make them guess. The problem is knowing when they have guessed right! With that in mind, what is your bid with the following hand:

 

1 is Precision style, 16+ any shape. Your partner’s overcall promises hearts and double shows a positive which is round about 8+ points, again any shape. You are playing Teams and the vulnerability is in your favour.

You may have noticed you have a reasonable hand of your own which probably leaves very little for your partner, maybe A, since North also has values. Despite that, we have the “water muddiers”:

Bruce Anderson “1: I am sorry if panellists are not allowed to  psych but if there was ever a time to do that, given partner does not have spades, this is it. If partner has 3 spades and supports me, obviously I retreat to hearts and keep doing so. It is far more likely N/S can make a lot of spades and my bidding 4 now will not keep our opponents out of what must be a big spade fit. They may even be able to make a spade slam. Doing that will not be easy after I bid 1.
Most partnerships have a bid over a Precision 1 to show both majors. So, it is unlikely that West has that suit. Going further than Bruce is:

Michael Cornell “2: natural and non-forcing- cannot resist throwing a spanner in the works. Hopefully, partner can support with 3 low!

It seems likely I will have to make a high level decision later but I will try to sniff out how strong the oppo’s are. I know we have a massive heart fit but I also have deepish minor cards and I also suspect at this vulnerability partner only has five hearts and so do not rule out a trick there.

In the “almost psych” camp, we have:

Stephen Blackstock “5: I have no idea how many tricks they can take, but I can't see our beating 4 and 5x shouldn't be too expensive. Make them guess, and remove Blackwood from their options. I won't save over 5: few IMPs to gain, and a lot to lose if 5 isn't making - but I will think again if have a confident sounding auction to 6. The percentages are very different at that level.

One feeble looking option I quite fancy is 1! Presumably double from South would then be take-out, and perhaps 2 a two-suiter, so it might not be as simple for them to bid spades naturally as may appear. And if my little game fails, I can bid a lot of hearts next round.”

and the “maybe psych” group:

 

Wayne Burrows “5: If everyone has their bid then partner has at most a 4 count (assuming 16+ club and 8+ for the opponents). Therefore, partner either has something like Axxxx or Qxxxx and out or is psyching.

It will often be right to bid with such a weak hand to help partner with a lead if nothing else. Some might have made a weak jump with those heart hands at this vulnerability. So, the best bid now may depend on what is known about partner's style - not so much whether or not they might psych but whether or not they would make a weak jump overcall on the example hands or if not would they bid 1 on such a weak hand? If they would bid 2 (or not bid 1) with Axxxx or Qxxxx and not much else, then we are left with the only possibility being that they have psyched. 

On the other hand, if partner is genuine, and such a weak hand is within range for 1, then 4 could be making and 5 is likely to be a great sacrifice against 4 and will force them to guess at an uncomfortably high level.

 

I am bidding 5 unless I know that partner can't have Axxxx or Qxxxx and out for their 1 bid.”

 

The rest of the Panel are going natural and high. A three-part analysis from Andy:

Andy Braithwaite “5: So, South has a long spade suit and partner can only hold 4 points which surely must be A.
So, we are 1 or 2 off in 5 when they can make at least 5.

So, I bid 5 to give them a guess.”

 

Kris Wooles “5: partner has a likely maximum 4 points and for sure they have a big spade fit. I want to make life as difficult as possible. My minor suit holdings may be worthwhile in defence if the bidding pushes them to 6. As usual, it’s now a guess for everyone with so much space being taken.” 

 

How high are our Panel prepared to go? Leon sets out his intentions:

Leon Meier “5: I favour our chances to beat a 6 level contact so I think if I push them there, then they'll more likely go down than make. 5 puts the most  most pressure on them and prevents them from finding their fits and shape. If they make a slam or make 5, then 6 is sure to be a good dive, probably only -2 but if they go down, then -300 is still 9 imps out compared to +100. I'll bid 5 planning on sacrificing in 6 over 5 but not sacrificing over 6 level contracts.”

 

 

Peter Newell “5: given the opponents have 24+ points and lots of spades, clearly partner has very few points. It is hard to know how many spades the opponents can make. My guess is 6.  So, we are trying to make it hard for them to decide what to do and realise they have such a good spade fit if they both have spades.  Bidding 5 rather than 4 makes it less appealing to bid spades for the opponents when their first bid is at the 5 level.  Bidding 4 makes it easier to bid 4 and does leave them with key card auctions.  However, 4 can work out as a 4 bid by the opponents is wide ranging making it hard to evaluate slam prospects.”

The decision was Bob Hamman’s in the recent US Seniors’ trial and Bob came up with the same bid as:

Nigel Kearney “6: I think it's good to be unpredictable in these situations, sometimes raising to the limit, sometimes raising less, and sometimes psyching. I might choose any of 2, 3 or 4NT here. But it looks like they make can 5 and I have no idea whether they can make 6, and neither do they. 6 won't cost too much and gives them the hardest guess.”

and when they guess 6?

 

Hamman could see only one hand. You can see all four. After A lead and a (the) spade switch, what can South do? Play A (maybe KQ are doubleton), return to dummy, ruff a club (no joy there) and run some trumps, lots of them. After 1 round of hearts, 6 rounds of spades and 2 rounds of clubs, these cards will be left:

Declarer plays K and discards a diamond from dummy with East having no good discard. So, does that means that 6 makes? Not necessarily since West can break the squeeze at trick 2 by switching to a diamond, by no means obvious unless requested by East playing a high heart at trick 1.

Thus, 6 may or may not have been the winning action. However, Hamman was not going to wait around and defend 6. He bid 7 which was doubled, down 3 for a flat board…and Hamman’s team went on to win the trial. I wonder what would have happened had East tried 1 or 2 instead of bidding to the number of hearts they held! And who says a pre-emptor never bids their hand twice? Anyone for 7 first up?

Richard Solomon

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