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There’s One Thing More Dangerous….

even than a player who bids a long suit at the 4 and then the 5 level, especially vulnerable. That player is a concern to their opponents. Take a look at this:

 

So, you have a potentially rather nice hand but you are not the only one who views their hand in that light. South made it awkward by their jump to the 4-level. They forced our “previously passed partner”  to bid to game but then continued on to the 5-level…and more guessing to be done.
We had hardly described our hand when our partner doubled 5. What do we do now? What does the double mean? Pairs is the game.
So, let’s hear it from the Panel. They are not united. Thinking positive is:

Nigel Kearney “5: I have an enormously powerful hand compared to what I could have, but there's no room to look for slam now. We are not in a force so partner should double on any hand with enough defence to expect to beat it, e.g., Jxxx x Axx Kxxxx. Yes, he could have two small hearts and nearly all his stuff in clubs but it is much too pessimistic to act on that assumption.”

Kris Wooles “5: With this shape and a known spade fit, I think I’d bid 5. It’s a guessing game, of course. South must have a decent hand to rebid hearts vulnerable. What did West have for 4 and then double? I’m not expecting to make any tricks in spades. Even if 5x goes down 2, it would be an inferior score at Pairs to 650 should 5 be making.”

Yet, is 5 making?

Stephen Blackstock “5: Without a confident explanation of the double, this is pretty much a guess. If West is showing a strong preference to defend, it could well be right to defend. I don't think double would be the right call with heart shortage or a control so it sounds like two heart losers. However, if West is saying he has values, was bidding 4 expecting to make (my preferred method), and is asking me to choose, then at Pairs it looks right to try for +650 since 5x doesn't look like +800. 5 should be OK if West has the A, which I think is marginally odds on.

This would be harder at IMPs where +500 can't cost much and could be very good if 5 is a step too far.”

So, what does the double mean? Is it strength or is it a warning not to go on? If so, should you heed that warning? Expecting two heart losers in 5 is:

 

Andy Braithwaite “Pass: Not an easy decision. If partner holds A we should make 5 but if not we are one down. And if partner can give me some club ruffs, we may get 800 against 5x.

So, I pass and hope as five tricks on defence looks more likely than 11 on play.”

 

Bruce Anderson “Pass: I am not going to second guess that we can make 5. Partner’s double should be respected; it is possible he holds AK, for example, as well as trump trick, and not the A.

If that is so, 5 could well be going down, and 5 is likely to be in serious trouble.”
The last part of Bruce’s statement worries me a little. Remember the title of this article.

We also have hardly described our own unusual shape. But for our two little hearts and partner’s double, then 5 would be an easy bid.
Below we get an inkling as to why Michael Cornell has done so well at this game:

Michael Cornell “5: going for my 650 or 680. Partner’s double here should simply  say he bid 4 to make but he is not good enough to bid 5 himself.

We could still be off two hearts and a diamond but assuming RHO is not crazy, I cannot see us our getting more than 500 penalty. ( I am not going to lead the 2!)
Certainly, you are advised not to lead that 2, Michael, or any other card as that would get an immediate cry for the director! “Lead out of turn!”
Like Michael, happier to be declarer is:

 

Leon Meier “5: I think it is likely 5 makes. Partner has something for bidding 4 and hopefully that's an ace in hearts or diamonds. The trumps will probably have no losers since partner will very often have 4 and/or the queen and with neither, we will finesse North for the QJ.

However, on a likely spade lead how many tricks will we take in 5? If they have a void spade, we are not taking many tricks. On a very bad day they might make, but with a singleton spade we get a spade, a red ace, if partner has a red ace, then a club ruff too and then we need 2 more tricks in the minors to make it profitable. Sounds too optimistic. I'm going for 5.”

Getting rich against 5x? I am not so sure especially if partner’s ace is not red and as seems highly likely, South is void in spades.

What then is more dangerous than the twice bidder? It is the unknown of what might appear in dummy if you elect to defend 5x. The silent North might have something useful for their partner. Defending 5x was both the winning action but in practice also a disaster for the defence:

 

5 was certainly not making with South taking the first two tricks with AK. Indeed, with North asking for a club as they discarded to the second round of hearts, East would do well to escape for down 1 especially if North plays low on the first round of diamonds from dummy.
What though of 5x? It can be beaten but in reality only by a machine. 
The only way to beat 5x is not by leading a high club at trick 1 but is the impossible lead of a small club. The defence then takes a club ruff and with a diamond switch, A and a diamond. 
No ”bloodbath” in defending 5x. No making 5 but in reality even down 2 would be a good result as it would surely be undoubled. Defending 5x was in theory right but -850 is not a great theoretical result.

Richard Solomon

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